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Red-letter week for New Jersey's Republican delegation | Editorial

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Your Republican rep just used the Congressional Review Act to wreck air quality, screw workers, give guns to the mentally ill and toss coal waste into your waterways. Your democracy. Cherish it. Watch video

Good news from Washington: Now even schizophrenics can purchase a gun. You can thank congressional Republicans for that, including the five from New Jersey.

Three of the five GOP representatives from our state also decided that dumping coal waste into our waterways - heavy metals, mostly - is a good idea.

And all five helped tear down workplace protections, clean air regulations, and corporate transparency - a total of five sloppy kisses they gave to special interests in just one week of work.

Imagine what these intrepid souls can do with other safeguards over the next four years with Donald Trump and Paul Ryan as their puppet masters.

The most baffling vote from Rodney Frelinghuysen (11th Dist.), Tom MacArthur (3rd Dist.) and Leonard Lance (7th Dist.) was to repeal the "stream protection rule," which forbids the coal companies from burying its corporate corpse in our rivers. They were part of a 228-194 majority that believed the rule was forcing coal companies out of business.

Odd, we thought coal was dying domestically because natural gas had taken over the energy market, that people were learning that burning fossil fuels threatens everything we value, and that the product was killing its own employees.

Either way, this repeal won't bring back coal jobs - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell now admits as much - and Reps. Frank LoBiondo (2nd Dist.) and Chris Smith (4th Dist.) were only two of nine House Republicans to acknowledge his earlier lie.

Clinging to Trump is going to leave a mark | Editorial

The aforementioned gun regulation affected about 75,000 people who suffer from a disabling mental disorder. It was repealed by a 235-180 vote, and those who signed off...oh, just read this:

"This is a slap in the face for those in the disabled community," House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) told USA Today. "It assumes that simply because an individual suffers from a mental condition, that individual is unfit to exercise his or her Second Amendment rights."

In other words, the GOP is OK with the next Adam Lanza having a Bushmaster.

Then there was a 2010 regulation that mandated oil companies to disclose payments they make to foreign governments for drilling rights. It forced dictators in impoverished countries to reveal the wealth generated from these contracts, but the GOP thinks it's an unfair burden on U.S. companies to be transparent about its bids. Besides, Rex Tillerson had lobbied hard against as ExxonMobil CEO because it cost him business in Russia, so there's that.

So Big Oil's congressional pals granted them permission to hide their payments to petro-thugs - and every Jersey Republican has helped make it impossible for American taxpayers and citizens of fragile countries to follow the money.

The House GOP also repealed a Bureau of Land Management rule (221-191) that required toxic methane emissions to be captured - picture those giant flares shooting out of refinery stalks on Federal land out West, and be happy you don't live there.

Finally, our five GOP congressmen helped kill a rule that requires companies bidding on federal contracts over $500,000 to report labor law violations.

Trump's 'cancer' spreading to NJ's GOP | Editorial

"It's all ideological for Republicans, not logical," Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6th) said Friday. "Many of the regulations in place now are responses to the financial crisis or decades of pollution. Again and again, we've seen deregulation cost lives and money. Republican are apparently content to deregulate, cross their fingers and hope for the best."

Most regulations were developed after years of study, with input for many stakeholders. The five representatives in our state should be forced to explain these votes, and why they favor Trump's meat-axe approach to governance.

Then, let them reap the whirlwind, starting with the lines that are forming outside the doors of their district offices - because their constituents know that this isn't the time to stop paying attention.

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If you would like to have a civil discussion with your congressman who voted to repeal these necessary regulations - or any other issue - his contact information is below. If the mailbox is full, try another number. If you don't know who your congressman is, click here.

Rodney Frelinghuysen - 973-984-0711, 202-225-5034.

Tom MacArthur - 856-267-5182, 732-569-6495, 202-225-4765.

Leonard Lance - 908-788-6900, 908-518-7733, 202-225-5361.

Chris Smith - 732-780-3035, 609-286-2571, 609-585-7878, 202-225-3765.

Frank LoBiondo - 800-471-4450, 609-625-5008, 202-225-6572.

Bookmark NJ.com/Opinion. Follow on Twitter @NJ_Opinion and find NJ.com Opinion on Facebook.


Ice, ice baby: N.J. hosts one cool state fair (PHOTOS)

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You can visit the slide, carousel, ice bar and carnival games in a cool setting until Feb. 26.

AUGUSTA -- Everyone loves the state fair, held here on some of the hottest summer days in August, so fair organizers decided to hold a similar festival in the same area, during some of the coldest days of winter.

Frozen in Ice: Carnival, a festival created from ice and being held at the Skylands Stadium, began Friday and will continue most days through Feb. 26. 

"It's cool," said Mark Crouthamel, president of Ice Works, which sculpted the works that will be featured, including a 50-foot long, 12-foot tall giant ice slide people can ride.

The festival will also include an ice carousel with eight ice-carved horses, ice benches that visitors can sit on, an ice ferris wheel and ice-carving demonstrations.

Cocktails and wine will be served at an ice lounge and ice bar, and for those who want something a bit warmer there will be hot food and a s'mores fire pit. Carnival games will also be available.

New Jersey State Fair

More than a 1,000 blocks of ice, at 300 pounds each, were used to make the entire event, Crouthamel said. The stadium is kept below 32 degrees, so the attractions won't melt, so fair-goers should dress warmly.

Adult admission is $20; tickets for children 12 and younger is $15. The event will be closed on Feb 6, 7, and 13.

Ed Murray may be reached at emurray@njadvancemedia.com. Follow Ed on Twitter at @EdMurrayphoto. Find NJ.COM on Facebook.

How every town in N.J. rates on income inequality

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We built a map showing Census data on the amount of income inequality in a town. Find out if your town has high or low levels of income disparity.

New Jersey is home to both people with unimaginable wealth and to single working moms struggling to get by.

To better understand this dichotomy, NJ Advance Media dug into the newest Census data and found where this kind of income inequality is highest and lowest in New Jersey.

The Census measures income inequality by the Gini index, which calculates the income distribution in a place. The closer the number is to one, the more wealth is concentrated in the hands of fewer people, thus the bigger income disparity.

We built an interactive map with the Gini index income inequality number of every municipality for 2011-2015. Find out what your town scored below.

According to the latest numbers released for 2011-2015, New Jersey's Gini index is at  0.4759, which is the 13th highest in the nation.

The town with the most income inequality is Deal in Monmouth County with a Gini index of 0.619, the Census shows.

Saddle River in Bergen at 0.600 and Far Hills in Somerset at 0.599 are the towns with the second and third highest level of income inequality.

However, many of the towns with the most income disparity are extremely wealthy with very small populations. A few millionaires in a small town can make a big difference.

"When you're poor, you make $10,000 and $20,000 a year, but a rich person can make millions of dollars a year which can skew the [Gini index] dramatically," according to Steve Scott, a researcher at the Joseph C. Cornwall Center for Metropolitan Studies at Rutgers.

For example, Deal, a town of about 750 residents, has about 18 percent of its households making $200,000 a year or more.

However, when we analyzed only the New Jersey towns with more than 10,000 residents, Atlantic City at 0.5462 and Montclair at 0.5385 emerged as the cities with the highest Gini Index scores.

The map above with the newest data shows how extreme income disparity is more common in the urban centers of the state. 

"In northeast New Jersey, where you the commuting shadow of New York, you see all kinds of poverty and wealth clustered together," said Steve Scott of the Cornwall Center for Metropolitan Studies at Rutgers. "When you go further south, you're not gonna see those extremes."

The Cornwall Center also zeroed in on Essex County as having the fifth-highest Gini index among all counties in the nation with a population of 250,000 and over.

This was also the first year we could compare Gini index numbers from two different five-year periods: 2006-2010 and 2011-2015.

The two datasets give us a snapshot of the income inequality from a time when New Jersey was beginning to feel the effects of the recession and compare it to the years when the state was trying to recover from it.

Statewide, New Jersey's Gini index was slightly less, with a score of 0.463 in 2006-2010 compared to what it was in 2011-2015 with a score of 0.4759. Thus, in the last decade, New Jersey has become a little more unequal.

The statewide rise in New Jersey income inequality is also reflected in the data for individual counties, which all except Cape May saw upticks in their Gini index scores.

Middlesex and Essex are the two counties with the biggest increases in income disparity over the two periods.

When it comes to towns, 370 had higher Gini index scores and higher income inequality in 2011-2015 than they did 2006-2010, while 191 had lower scores.

However, most of these towns have higher margins of error that make their increases and decreases statistically insignificant. When we took away cities with high margins of error and smaller populations, we came up with 38 cities that increased their income disparity and only three cities that saw it shrink.

The city of Orange in Essex had the biggest jump in its Gini index score, from 0.418 in 2006-2010 to 0.4765 in 2011-2015.

4 charts that show the rapid growth of income inequality in N.J.

Renee Koubiadis, executive director of Anti-Poverty Network of New Jersey, notes that while wages for wealthiest residents have continued to grow, wages for middle and lower classes have stagnated as cost of living, especially housing and medical care expenses, continue to rise.  

This is especially exacerbated in communities like Atlantic City, the city with the highest Gini index in New Jersey, where the closing of the casinos can ripple through a community.

"We don't typically think of the impact beyond a company or casino closing beyond those workers not working. If [those workers] get sick and can't fill out their pharmacy prescriptions, then that affects the pharmacy. It affects the whole community just beyond the workers being laid off," Koubiadis said.

She said that beyond twice raising the Earned Income Tax Credit, the state has done little to help lift people out of poverty and stem income inequality in New Jersey.

Felipe Chavana has witnessed this phenomenon in Essex County first-hand as director of New Jersey Legal Services, which provides free legal assistance to low-income New Jersey residents.

Essex is essentially a "tale of two cities," according to Chavana. The eastern half is made up of four largely segregated inner cities (Newark, Orange, East Orange and Irvington) with high poverty, high crime, high unemployment and lower quality of schools, where the population is overwhelmingly people of color. By contrast, the western half is made up of some of the wealthiest communities in the state.

"It all relates to the high cost of living in Essex, especially in areas where there's no rent control," said Chavana. "[The middle class] then moves out, and they all end up in Pennsylvania or western New Jersey."

In addition, the poorest of the poor in Essex are getting poorer at a rate that Chavana has never seen before. With the new Trump administration, things are looking bleak, he said.

"There's no reason for optimism," he said. "Well, maybe there is in the way that things will have to get worse before they get better."

 
Carla Astudillo may be reached at castudillo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @carla_astudi. Find her on Facebook.

N.J.'s unbeaten wrestlers are a combined 1,161-0, who are they?

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Meet the members of one of New Jersey's most exclusive wrestling clubs -- the undefeated as of Feb. 5

Trailer park handyman is a serial child rapist, cops say

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The 58-year-old from Bucks County, Pa., has been assaulting children since the 1970s, authorities said.

A 58-year-old Bucks County man who authorities called a "serial child rapist" is charged with sexually abusing five children and may have assaulted many more, Falls Township police said.

William Charles Thomas, a trailer-park handyman from the 1600 block of Bristol Pike in Morrisville, was arraigned Friday before District Judge William Benz on charges of possession of child pornography and dissemination of photos and films depicting child sex acts, according to court records.

Bail was set at 10 percent of $150,000 and he was sent to Bucks County jail, where he remained Monday morning.

He is scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday morning before District Judge Jan Vislosky on additional crimes: five counts of child rape and 46 related offenses, according to court records.

Police allege he assaulted children dating to the 1970s, but the specific charges date from the 1990s until last Thursday in Falls Township and Morrisville and involved five victims younger than 13, authorities said.

Thomas allegedly wrote on plywood, drywall and a shed's doors about sexual assaults on children, at times identifying the victims by name and other specifics, police said.

The plywood was found in a vacant home where Thomas was doing renovation work at the Midway Village Trailer Park, where he lived, police said. A manager in November turned over the plywood to police, launching the investigation, police said.

The drywall -- which was later discarded -- and a homemade child sex doll were found in 2010 and reported to authorities by a contractor working on Thomas' previous home in the first block of Pleasant Lane in Levittown, which is within Falls Township, police said. The contractor was interviewed again for the current investigation, police said.

When Thomas' home was searched on Thursday, he had about 1,000 photos and other pictures of naked children on his bedroom's walls and 500 to 1,000 pairs of girls' underwear, some of which was displayed above his bed, police said after a warrant was served.

Some of the writings found depicted assaults by Thomas in the 1970s on children as young as 3, according to police.

A news conference was planned Monday by the Bucks County District Attorney's Office and township police are asking other victims or anyone with knowledge of the crimes to come forward.

Authorities said people can contact Falls Township Sgt. Christopher Clark at 215-302-3315 or at clarkpd@fallstwp.com; or Bucks County Detective Lt. Robert Gorman at 215-340-8141 or at rmgorman@buckscounty.org.

Preliminary hearings are tentatively scheduled Feb. 15 in Vislosky's court.

Tony Rhodin may be reached at arhodin@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @TonyRhodin. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.

Freezing rain threat looms for Tuesday morning commute in parts of N.J.

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Forecasters say drivers could face some icy patches Tuesday morning, and the threat of snow or a wintry mix looms later in the week.

Drivers heading to school or work Tuesday morning might have to contend with pockets of freezing rain in the northwestern region of New Jersey and plain rain across the rest of the region, forecasters said.

A freezing rain advisory is in effect from 1 a.m. to 10 a.m. Tuesday in Sussex and Warren counties in New Jersey, along with Carbon, Monroe and Northampton counties in northeastern Pennsylvania.

"It's going to be a very light amount of freezing rain," said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly. "There probably are going to be some icy patches on the road, primarily in the morning."

freezing-rain-advisory-nws.jpgA freezing rain advisory is in effect for Sussex and Warren counties, along with other areas shaded in pink on this map. (National Weather Service) 

For most of New Jersey, commuters should expect on and off rain showers during the morning commute and also during the evening commute. In North Jersey, it will likely be a chilly rain, with temperatures hovering in the 30s and 40s, while in South Jersey temperatures will be rising into the upper 50s, Gaines said.

More warm air will be flowing across the region on Wednesday, with more rain showers possible and temperatures soaring into the upper 50s in North Jersey and 60 degrees or higher in central and southern New Jersey -- with daily temperature records "within striking distance," Gaines said.

The warmest temperature ever recorded on Feb. 8 in Trenton was 62 degrees, in 1933, and the daily record high in Philadelphia is 63 degrees, set in 1925, Gaines said. Newark's record high for Feb. 8 is 63 degrees, set in 1965, according to the weather service's New York office.

The Atlantic City record for Feb. 8 will likely be out of reach: 69 degrees, set in 1965. The normal high temperature for Feb. 8 ranges from 41 degrees in North Jersey to 43 degrees in South Jersey.

Snow threat later this week

Gaines said there's a potential for snow or a wintry mix Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but accumulations will be dictated by how cold the temperatures drop when the storm system arrives from the Ohio Valley.

As of now, the weather service is anticipating rain showers in central and southern New Jersey Wednesday night, changing over to a rain, snow and sleet mixture extending into the morning hours on Thursday, Gaines said.

"Further north in northern New Jersey, we're looking at the potential for a rain and snow mixture in the Wednesday night timeframe," Gaines said, noting the precipitation could end up being all snow in North Jersey if the storm gets here Thursday and the temperatures are colder. 

"If it is faster, we'll have more in the way of rain," Gaines said. "If it slows down and comes in on Thursday morning, we'll have more in the way of snow."

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

Snowstorm later this week could dump 4-6 inches in N.J. and NYC, forecasters say

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Forecasters say Thursday morning's commute could be impacted by the storm.

Weather forecasters say northern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island could get as much as 4 to 6 inches of snow from a storm system that's expected to move quickly through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

Based on the projected timing of the storm, it could impact the Thursday morning commute.

"There's a potential for snow to come down here at a fairly high clip," said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly. "If the rates do pick up Thursday morning, we could have some slick spots or some covering of snow" on roads across the region.

With the storm system still more than two days away from arriving in our region, the snowfall projections can certainly change between now and then, Gaines noted. But as of now, the weather service is forecasting 1 to 2 inches of snow in South Jersey, 2 to 4 inches in much of Central Jersey and 3 to 4 inches in most of North Jersey, with some pockets of 4 to 6 inches.

The weather service's New York regional office is projecting 4 to 6 inches of snow for New York City, Long Island and most of Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties, and 3 to 5 inches in Essex and Union counties. 

snow-forecast-feb9-nj.jpgEarly snowfall projections for most of New Jersey from Wednesday night through Thursday, Feb. 9. Projections for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union counties are included in the map below. (National Weather Service) 

Just like Gaines, forecasters in the New York office agree the snowfall projections could be revised -- downward or up -- as Thursday gets closer.

"There's a lot of variability," said Jay Engle, a meteorologist at the weather service's New York office. "We're getting a wide spread on the (snowfall) range from the various computer guidance models."

"It really could be anywhere from a little (snow) to a 9- to 10-inch worst-case scenario," Engle said Monday afternoon. At the very least, it's shaping up to be "a shovable snow."

The timing of the storm is a key factor in determining how much snow will fall, because New Jersey and New York will be enveloped in near-record warmth on Wednesday as the storm system approaches from the Ohio Valley.

Engle and Gaines said if the storm arrives early Wednesday evening, when the warm air is still expected to be in place, the precipitation would start as rain or a wintry mix, cutting down on snowfall totals. If the storm arrives later Wednesday night or after midnight, when a surge of cold air will be flowing down from Canada, more snow will likely fall.

snow-forecast-feb9-nyc.jpgEarly snowfall projections for Wednesday night through Thursday night in northeastern sections of New Jersey, as well as New York City, Long Island and Connecticut. (National Weather Service) 

Freezing rain advisory

A different storm system will be moving into New Jersey overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, bringing rain to most of the region but pockets of freezing rain to parts of Passaic, Sussex and Warren counties.

A freezing rain advisory is in effect for Sussex and Warren from 1 a.m. to 10 a.m. Tuesday, and for western Passaic from 3 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday.

"Icing may create slippery conditions on roads, bridges, and sidewalks, affecting the Tuesday morning commute," the weather service said in a briefing package Monday afternoon. 

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook. 

Freezing rain advisory issued as focus remains on Thursday snow forecast

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Thursday has the potential for the heaviest snowfall of the season, according to the National Weather Service.

Freezing rain could affect the morning commute in parts of northern New Jersey Tuesday morning, but much of the state remains focused on the potential snowstorm still two days away that could drop 3 to 6 inches throughout the state.

FreezingRainMap.jpg 

Drivers should be extra cautious Tuesday morning as icing could create slippery conditions on roads and bridges in areas along and north of the I-80 until about 9 a.m.

The freezing rain advisory will remain in effect for both Sussex and Warren counties until 10 a.m. and for western Passaic County until 1 p.m. this afternoon.

(UPDATEThe freezing rain advisory for Sussex County has been extended until 1 p.m. because temperatures are struggling to warm above the freezing mark, the National Weather Service said. More rain is expected to fall between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m., so it could turn into freezing rain when it hits the surface.)

Temperatures for the first six days of February have been relatively warm, averaging above normal -- and that trend should continue into Wednesday.

At 5 a.m., the mercury hovered at 36 degrees under cloudy skies in Newark while Toms River sat under cloudy skies at 46 degrees. The highs for both cities will reach 49 and 58 degrees today -- with clouds remaining and chances of rain.

Snow will develop far north around midnight Thursday, and the NWS is predicting snow to start developing Thursday morning around 10 a.m. around the I-95 area.

Slippery travel is possible for Thursday morning's commute with what the NWS is calling plowable snow. For areas near and northwest of the I-95, this could be the heaviest snowfall of the season so far.  

NJ Advance Media staff writer Len Melisurgo contributed to this report. Rajeev Dhir may be reached at rdhir@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @googasmammoo. Find NJ.com on Facebook.


The most (and least) expensive towns in N.J. by the square foot

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It's well known that New Jersey is one of the most expensive places to live in the United States, but the cost of property varies widely across the Garden State. What costs you $70 in one part of the state could cost you $700 in another.

No child brides allowed in N.J., Senate panel says

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If the bill is signed into law, New Jersey would be the first state to remove all exemptions permitting child marriages.

TRENTON -- Taking a stand against forced marriages, a state Senate committee Monday approved a bill that would prohibit anyone younger than 18 from getting married.

If passed, the bill (A3091) would make New Jersey the first state in the nation to remove all exceptions to the law that says people must be 18 years old to get married. Children ages 16 and 17 may marry now with parental consent. Even children under 16 may marry if they obtain parental consent and a state judge's approval.

The measure passed the state Assembly, 64-0, in November, and Monday's action sets up a vote for final passage in the full Senate.  

Fraidy Reiss of Westfield, founder and executive director of Unchained At Last, a non-profit organization that helps young women and girls leave forced marriages, said the problem is more widespread than people think. Between 1995 and 2012, 3,500 minors got married in New Jersey -- some as young as 13.

"Some had an age difference (large enough) to make it statutory rape," Reiss told the Senate Judiciary Committee.

The practice is driven by some religiously conservative parents "who do not want their child to have boyfriends or to go to college unattended," Abed Awad, a legal expert from Hasbrouck Heights who is an expert in religious law, testified.

"They want control and decide who their child marries at a young age," rather than allowing their child to mature and decide, 'I'm in New Jersey, I'm an American, I'm going to college. I am going to decide who I marry."

"We need to protect these children," Awad said.

Protest against child, forced marriages: 'I lived with my rapist'

State Sen. Michael Doherty (R-Warren), who voted against the bill, insisted there should be exceptions to the law. Young people who enlist in the military often marry young, he said. He wondered about the teenage girl gets pregnant and wants to get married before she is 18. He questioned how she will get health insurance on her own.

"Aren't these legitimate concerns?" Doherty asked. "You are going to deny them the opportunity?"

"We're not denying, we are delaying," said Reiss, herself the victim of a forced marriage when she was 19.

"You make marriage sound so bad," Doherty said. "I've been married 31 years."

"Congratulations," Reiss replied, with a soft chuckle.

"You are going to take their rights away?" Doherty responded?

Reiss replied: "I can tell you I get calls every day from girls who beg me for help."

Committee Chairman Nicholas Scutari (D-Union) banged the gavel and ended the exchange.

Scutari called the decision to support the bill "a no-brainer."

"I really thought this was illegal already," he said.

The committee voted 10-1 to pass the bill, with state Sen. Joseph Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) abstaining.

Susan K. Livio may be reached at slivio@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on Twitter @SusanKLivio. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.

Wrestling Top 20 for Feb. 7: Bosco, Bound Brook bounced before stretch run

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There's two new teams in the Top 20.

Drunken man gives officer supermarket discount card as ID, cops say

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The man was found inside a parked vehicle at a Hackettstown pub.

 

A drunken man outside a pub handed over a cigarette and discount card when a responding officer requested his identification, police said.

An officer just before 2:30 a.m. Sunday was flagged down by a person in the parking lot of Bea McNally's Irish Pub, 109 Grand Ave., Hackettstown. The person reported Kris Freund, 64, drunk and sitting inside a parked car, according to police.

When the officer approached Freund, he noticed cuts on his eye, lip and hand areas. The man then handed over the cigarette and a supermarket discount card as forms of identification before eventually finding the correct documentation, police said.

Freund later fell out of the vehicle and the Hackettstown rescue squad responded to the scene, police said.

He was charged with drunken driving, refusal to submit a breath test and various motor vehicle violations. He was released pending a court appearance.

Pamela Sroka-Holzmann may be reached at pholzmann@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow her on Twitter @pamholzmann. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.

 

Wrestling Playoffs from 'Another title' to 'Zigich': A-Z guide to the team tourney

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Check out a storyline for each letter of the alphabet as we get ready to start postseason matches.

Introducing our N.J. forecast Bust-O-Meter: How likely is a storm to hit?

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Forecasts don't always work out. Our new tool helps show when a snow forecast has the best chance of falling apart.

Let's be honest: Weather forecasts don't always hit the mark.

That's not from any lack of effort on meteorologists' part -- weather forecasting is incredibly complex and difficult.  

Forecasters have to make a prediction regardless of how certain they are of what will ultimately happen. Uncertainty in forecasts is something meteorologists have struggled to communicate for ages, especially with snowstorms.

With New Jersey potentially facing its first major snowfall of the season, NJ Advance Media has created a tool that makes it easier.  

Today we're introducing the Bust-O-Meter. The Bust-O-Meter is a measure of the confidence weather forecasters have in their prediction, put on a scale of 1 to 100. Find our methodology and our new tool below

Methodology

The Bust-O-Meter uses a weighted average of six locations in New Jersey for any given storm event. We take the official forecast of these locations and measure how far they are from the best and worst case scenarios published by the National Weather Service alongside the official forecast.

The wider the range between the official forecast and the best and worst case scenarios, the less confidence there is in the forecast. Generally, these ranges come down as the storm event gets closer and confidence increases. We put our measure on a 100 point scale to simplify it for readers.

This is experimental.  It will be tweaked and expanded as time goes on.

So, without further ado, the Bust-O-Meter for the storm that is predicted to hit Wednesday night into Thursday morning:

 

Higher snowfall totals expected as winter storm watch is issued in N.J.

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Forecasters now say as much as 6 to 12 inches of snow could blanket parts of New Jersey and New York City on Thursday.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for most of New Jersey, New York City and the surrounding region in advance of a fast-moving storm system that is expected to sweep across the area early Thursday morning.

The watch, effective from 10 p.m. Wednesday through 6 p.m. Thursday, was issued around the same time the weather service increased its snowfall projections. Forecasters now believe as much as 8 to 12 inches of snow could fall in northern New Jersey, 4 to 8 inches in central New Jersey and 1 to 3 inches in southern New Jersey.

In South Jersey, snowfall accumulations will be cut down by warm air that's expected to linger for a longer time than areas further north, allowing more rain to fall when the storm begins shortly after midnight Wednesday and rapidly intensifies, according to Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly.

How much snow will fall this week?

Rain will gradually change to snow in all areas of the state around sunrise Thursday, which could spell bad news for morning commuters.

"Snow could be falling at a pretty good clip from right around 6 to around 9 in the morning. That looks to be the heaviest snow," Gaines said. "That's really poor timing in terms of the morning rush hour."

Although the forecast could change as the storm moves closer to New Jersey, as of now forecasters expect the bulk of the snow to be over by the early afternoon on Thursday, with some residual flurries or light snow showers, Gaines said.

"For some areas near and northwest of Interstate 95, this should be the heaviest snow of the season so far," the weather service said in a briefing on Tuesday.

"Heavy snow and poor visibilities at times could make travel dangerous," the weather service noted. "Significant impacts to the Thursday morning commute are likely," and it's possible the afternoon commute could also be affected.

Note: The winter storm watch originally covered only northern and central New Jersey. On Tuesday night, the watch was expanded to include Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem counties. 

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.


Crashing car ends up on roof on church's doorstep (PHOTOS)

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The driver was taken to the hospital, according to an on-scene report.

A crashing car took out a utility pole about 12:30 a.m. Wednesday and ended up on its roof on the doorstep of a Mansfield Township church, according to a witness account.

Township police said about 6:20 a.m. that the crash was still under investigation so they couldn't provide or confirm information about the wreck.

MORE: Accident victim was father, veteran

From an on-scene report:

A Honda Accord was going north along a right-hand curve in the 200 block of Main Street when it crossed the road and splintered a utility pole. It went back across the street, rolling onto its roof and ending up just outside the McCrea Memorial United Methodist Church.

The man driving the car had gotten out by the time police arrived. He was taken to Hackettstown Medical Center.

Main Street was closed until 2:10 a.m. between Hoffman Road and Cherry Tree Bent Road.

In addition to Mansfield police, the township rescue squad and fire department as well as Tri County Fire Department and Butler Park Fire Department responded.

Freelance photographer Rich Maxwell provided information for this report.

Tony Rhodin may be reached at arhodin@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @TonyRhodin. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.

Crashing car ends up on roof on church's doorstep (PHOTOS)

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The driver is taken to an area hospital, according to an on-scene report.

A crashing car took out a utility pole about 12:30 a.m. Wednesday and ended up on its roof on the doorstep of a Mansfield Township church, according to a witness account.

Township police said about 6:20 a.m. that the crash was still under investigation so they couldn't provide or confirm information about the wreck.

MORE: Accident victim was father, veteran

From an on-scene report:

A Honda Accord was going north along a right-hand curve in the 200 block of Main Street when it crossed the road and splintered a utility pole. It went back across the street, rolling onto its roof and ending up just outside the McCrea Memorial United Methodist Church.

The man driving the car had gotten out by the time police arrived. He was taken to Hackettstown Medical Center.

Main Street was closed until 2:10 a.m. between Hoffman Road and Cherry Tree Bent Road.

In addition to Mansfield police, the township rescue squad and fire department as well as Tri County Fire Department and Butler Park Fire Department responded.

Freelance photographer Rich Maxwell provided information for this report.

Tony Rhodin may be reached at arhodin@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @TonyRhodin. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.

Apartment building burns in Phillipsburg neighborhood

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Police, fire and emergency medical personnel are dispatched. Watch video

A four-unit apartment building at 690 Wilbur Ave. was significantly damaged by fire just after 8:30 a.m. Wednesday in Phillipsburg.

Emergency personnel went to Thomas Street and Wilbur Avenue as flames poured from windows to the rear of the yellow-sided structure.

No one was hurt, fire Chief Richard Hay said. Warren County fire Marshal Joe Lake and town police were there as the investigation into a cause and ignition site were beginning about 9:45 a.m.

The upper floor to the rear appeared to sustain the most damage. There are three apartments in the main portion of the building with a studio nearest where the flames were seen, a tenant of another apartment said.

Frederick Newman wasn't having the best of 35th birthdays. He was called at work and alerted about the fire. His apartment is in a one-story extension on the left side of the building the farthest from the fire. He wasn't sure whether his unit was smoke or water damaged.

Windows were broken out on the second floor to the front of the main structure. A hole was cut into the roof. A chain saw about 9:30 a.m. was digging through the attic wall nearest where the fire had been.

Newman said he saw the resident of the studio apartment on Tuesday night but hadn't seen her Wednesday morning.

He said he didn't know much as he stared from behind a firetruck across Wilbur Avenue from his home.

"I have no clue what's going on," he said, adding he hadn't been allowed to look into his apartment, where he's lived for five years. He said he doesn't have renter's insurance.

The building is owned by Brian and Sheri Nehlia of Forks Township, property records show. It was built in 1940.

Hay said he would try and release more information later in the day.

Tony Rhodin may be reached at arhodin@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @TonyRhodin. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.

Ranking the top 50 N.J. alums in women's college basketball

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Breaking down which N.J. alums are having the best season's in women's college basketball.

How much snow is forecast to fall in your backyard? (MAP)

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Using the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database, we mapped snowfall predictions for every few square miles in New Jersey.

Winter storm warnings have been issued for most of New Jersey, with the most significant storm of the season all but promising to dump 4 to 10 inches of snow on the state in what has otherwise been a quiet winter. 

But how much snow is predicted for your town? Wonder no longer! 

Using data from the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database, we mapped snowfall predictions for every few square miles in New Jersey.

Click anywhere on the map below to see what the National Weather Service is predicting for your town.   

Map updated: 5:30 p.m. Wednesday Feb. 8

Stephen Stirling may be reached at sstirling@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.
 
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