Winter storm is still several days away from forming, so it's hard to predict the exact track and intensity. Watch video
Forecasters remain confident that a storm system will be heading towards New Jersey next week but, based on the latest projections from computer models, they are expecting most of the Garden State to end up with more rain than snow.
The storm, which is expected to form Tuesday in the Gulf Coast region and move up along the Atlantic coast or into the lower Ohio Valley, is likely to affect New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night, said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service regional office in Mount Holly.
"The northern half of the state is still in play for a rain-snow mix," Gaines said. "It looks like it's going to be more in the way of rain for most of the region," particularly the Shore area and southern New Jersey.
Although the precipitation could start out as snow across the entire state, temperatures are expected to warm up from the low 30s into the low 40s, changing the snow to rain in most of central and southern New Jersey.
Dry Friday, but chance of wet weather in N.J. at night
Northern sections of New Jersey are more likely to see snow changing to a mix of rain and snow, Gaines said, but he noted the storm is still days away from forming, so the forecast is far from being a lock.
As of now, it appears the storm system, or at least part of it, could track as far west as the lower Ohio Valley, Gaines said. Most computer models originally were projecting a track closer to the Atlantic coast or just off the coast, and that track would be more favorable for heavy snow for New Jersey.
"There's going to be a pretty big storm. But the main question at this point is where does the track for this storm go," said Rob Reale, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks, a private forecasting company based in Hackettstown.
Reale said as of now, it appears the system will probably end up "a little too far inland to become a major snowstorm" for New Jersey, but the state's northwestern corner has the best shot at getting some snow.
If a substantial amount of rain or snow falls, there would be some concerns about coastal flooding, Reale said, because tides will be running high early next week, with a full moon on Tuesday.
Two shots at wintry mix
Before that storm system moves in, parts of New Jersey have a possibility of seeing some light snow or mixed precipitation.
As temperatures get lower Friday night, there's a slight chance of sleet, freezing rain and snow in northern New Jersey and northern sections of central New Jersey, the National Weather Service said.
Then on Sunday night, a small storm system from the West is expected to move into New Jersey, possibly bringing some rain turning into light snow, particularly in the northern third of the state, Reale said.
Wintry weather chances Tue-Wed highest northern areas. However, still a lot of uncertainty. https://t.co/q2vvnRxg7n #njwx #dewx #pawx #mdwx
-- NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) February 19, 2016
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.