Much of the Northeast could be in for a stormy weekend when spring 2016 officially arrives on Sunday, forecasters say.
It looks like Old Man Winter might have another trick up his sleeve just before the calendar officially switches over to spring next weekend.
Long-range computer models are projecting a sizable coastal storm could develop off the Atlantic coast on Saturday and bring heavy rain -- and perhaps some snow -- to New Jersey and other states in the Northeast region.
"We're almost 100 percent certain there will be a storm," said Joe Martucci, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown. "It's something to watch out for."
What is far less certain at this time is what type of precipitation will fall, but Martucci said if the storm track matches up the way the major computer models are currently projecting, most of New Jersey would have a very good shot at seeing all rain and no snow.
Why N.J. might have a cool, wet spring
That track, which has the storm moving offshore but hugging the New Jersey coastline, would push a lot of moisture and warm air in from the ocean and would block the flow of colder air from the north, Martucci said. Under that scenario, there could still be a chance of some snow or mixed precipitation in northwestern sections of the state.
Even with no snow in play, "it still could be a big soaker late Saturday night into most of the day on Sunday," he said.
Elliot Abrams, chief meteorologist for AccuWeather, agrees if the storm tracks along or near the Atlantic coast, "drenching rain would occur along the Interstate 95 corridor."
That storm track "would allow the potential for heavy wet snow or a rain/snow mix over the Appalachians, the eastern end of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region," Abrams said.
As of early Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service is predicting rain in its official weekend forecast for all sections of New Jersey. But the weather service's seven-day outlook map shows a 10 percent to 30 percent chance of snow in the state's northwestern corner.
Gary Szatkowski, the meteorologist in charge of the weather service's regional office in Mount Holly, tweeted that the potential weekend storm is "something to keep an eye on."
On the East Coast, spring officially starts at 12:30 a.m. on Sunday, March 20.
Here is the @NWSWPC Day 7 outlook for potential significant snowfall. Something to keep an eye on. pic.twitter.com/x9c07fM18G
-- Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) March 14, 2016
GFS consistently showing a heavy snow storm next weekend. pic.twitter.com/h1XmKUD1ZM
-- NortheastWeatherWx (@NEWeatherWx) March 14, 2016
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.