Forecasters now say as much as 6 to 12 inches of snow could blanket parts of New Jersey and New York City on Thursday.
The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for most of New Jersey, New York City and the surrounding region in advance of a fast-moving storm system that is expected to sweep across the area early Thursday morning.
The watch, effective from 10 p.m. Wednesday through 6 p.m. Thursday, was issued around the same time the weather service increased its snowfall projections. Forecasters now believe as much as 8 to 12 inches of snow could fall in northern New Jersey, 4 to 8 inches in central New Jersey and 1 to 3 inches in southern New Jersey.
In South Jersey, snowfall accumulations will be cut down by warm air that's expected to linger for a longer time than areas further north, allowing more rain to fall when the storm begins shortly after midnight Wednesday and rapidly intensifies, according to Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly.
How much snow will fall this week?
Rain will gradually change to snow in all areas of the state around sunrise Thursday, which could spell bad news for morning commuters.
"Snow could be falling at a pretty good clip from right around 6 to around 9 in the morning. That looks to be the heaviest snow," Gaines said. "That's really poor timing in terms of the morning rush hour."
Although the forecast could change as the storm moves closer to New Jersey, as of now forecasters expect the bulk of the snow to be over by the early afternoon on Thursday, with some residual flurries or light snow showers, Gaines said.
"For some areas near and northwest of Interstate 95, this should be the heaviest snow of the season so far," the weather service said in a briefing on Tuesday.
"Heavy snow and poor visibilities at times could make travel dangerous," the weather service noted. "Significant impacts to the Thursday morning commute are likely," and it's possible the afternoon commute could also be affected.
Note: The winter storm watch originally covered only northern and central New Jersey. On Tuesday night, the watch was expanded to include Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem counties.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.