Waiting for the next great sunset to photograph? A specialized computer model developed by three young weather buffs might help you out.
On a warm Sunday evening in late November, people all across New Jersey and other eastern states stopped what they were doing, grabbed their cameras and locked their eyes on the sky as a kaleidoscope of colors reflected off the wispy clouds.
They were witnessing a spectacular sunset, with alternating shades of orange, pink and purple glowing in the western sky.
While thousands of folks who saw the Nov. 22 sunset had no idea the sky would look so great that night until it was happening, the colorful light show had been predicted by a computer model created by three young weather enthusiasts in Pennsylvania.
The three guys who created the SunsetWx computer model: Steve Hallett, Jacob DeFlitch and Ben Reppert. (Courtesy of SunsetWx) In early October, Ben Reppert, Jacob DeFlitch and Steve Hallett met over pizza and started talking about whether there's a scientific way to predict a great sunset, Hallett said in a phone interview Monday.
Hallett is a sophomore studying meteorology at Penn State University, and his colleagues both graduated from the school with a meteorology degree and now hold jobs in the weather field. When DeFlitch was a student, he did photography work for Penn State and loved to capture images of sunsets and scenic landscapes. One obstacle he faced was not knowing when the sky would look its best.
Informal conversations about meteorology and photography, coupled with Hallett's computer programming skills, led to the recent creation of SunsetWx, a computer model that pulls in atmospheric data from an existing weather forecasting model (the North American Model used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and runs the data through a special algorithm developed by Hallett.
The end result: Color-coded maps that show the probability of vivid sunsets each day, all across the United States.
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"Our algorithm predicts higher clouds, and higher clouds usually result in nicer sunsets," Hallett said. "It takes a weather model's guess of what the atmospheric conditions will be... We take that data and we form our forecast from that data, using several variables," including cloud height and atmospheric moisture.
The color-coded map they use sort of looks like a radar image you would see during an outbreak of bad thunderstorms, except on this map bright reds and oranges are good, not bad.
In places where thin high-level clouds are expected as the sun begins to dip below the horizon, their map will show deeper shades of red and orange, indicating a high probability of a nice sunset. Where mid-level or low-level clouds are expected to hang in the sky around sunset time, or the western sky is too clear, the map shows medium and darker shades of blue, indicating the smallest chance of a memorable sunset.
@sunset_wx outstanding forecast guys. Grabbed this one just shy of Spavinaw in NE Oklahoma. pic.twitter.com/RMf11oI0rb
-- stevenk (@kevswx80) December 8, 2015
DeFlitch said a key ingredient that improves the odds of a scenic sunset is the presence of high-level clouds.
"High clouds not only provide moisture to refract the sunlight, their wispy formation also provides texture to the sky and are high enough in the atmosphere for the sun to scatter light below," he explained on his website, comparing the process to rays of light that project on a movie screen.
GAINING STEAM
The young forecasting trio -- Reppert is from the Allentown area, DeFlitch from outside of Pittsburgh and Hallett from the Ridley area of Delaware County -- drew a good deal of attention on social media for accurately predicting the dazzling Nov. 22 sunset.
"We really scored a coup on that one," Hallett said. "That's when people really started to take notice."
Since then, word of their sunset model has been spreading on Twitter and Facebook, getting plugs from TV meteorologists and photography buffs, and drawing praise from weather experts familiar with their work.
"In terms of its scientific merit, what they appear to be doing is selecting relevant weather variables that are used within previously-developed weather forecast models to create a unique product that provides the user with information on the quality of a given sunrise/sunset," said Kyle Imhoff, the acting Pennsylvania State Climatologist. "This is scientifically sound, as many meteorologists produce their own maps of unique model output that provide some useful information to the user."
Just like ordinary weather forecasts, however, some of the sunset forecasts don't pan out. When that happens, Hallett gets some good-natured ribbing from his friends at school. And just as Facebook and Twitter users around the nation have verified the accuracy of the sunset model by posting photos, some have pointed out flawed predictions.
But the SunsetWx team takes it all in stride, saying they welcome feedback both good and bad, because all of the information helps them tweak their computer formula.
"It's still in its infancy," DeFlitch said, noting the sunset forecasts launched in mid-November.
In fact, the formula has already been refined a few times since its inception, and the maps now include sunrise forecasts as well as sunsets. And the Pennsylvania weather buffs expect more revisions down the line, all to boost the model's accuracy.
While it's too early to predict what lies ahead for the SunsetWx guys, DeFlitch is hoping their nifty invention will encourage more people to appreciate cloud formations and dazzling colors in the sky.
"Maybe it'll get the public out to enjoy nature and the beauty around us," he said.
RECENT SUNSET FORECASTS
On Monday, Dec. 7, SunsetWx predicted a slightly above-average sunset in New Jersey and New York City, and the forecast turned out to be on target.
Here's what the SunsetWX map showed for 5 p.m. that day. (Areas with a brighter orange color were forecast to have a higher probability of a nicer sunset than the areas in yellow or green.)
Some Twitter users posted photos and videos of a scenic sky that night in Manhattan, including this time-lapse video shot by WABC-TV's Eyewitness News.
WAIT FOR IT... This #sunset timelapse over Lower Manhattan in #NYC is the best thing you'll see all day https://t.co/uW1raDOIKo
-- Eyewitness News (@ABC7NY) December 7, 2015
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.