Rain is still expected, off and on, into the weekend thanks to a nor'easter, but the worst of the storm is forecast well to the south of the region.
The weather forecast is brightening for the next few days in the Lehigh Valley region.
First, the worst of a nor-easter responsible for rain arriving Thursday night was expected to hit well south, toward the Carolinas and Virginia, according to the National Weather Service.
Then, as Hurricane Joaquin strengthened into a potentially devastating Category 4, the tropical system's projected path moved east out to sea, potentially sparing the Lehigh Valley.
All told, the weather service downgraded its rainfall forecast for the region through Monday or Tuesday from upwards of 2 inches to between a quarter- and a half-inch, with locally higher amounts possible, according to meteorologist Larry Nierenberg.
"If this thing goes enough east, we may not see very much from it at all," Nierenberg said of Joaquin, speaking from the weather service's Philadelphia region forecast office in Mount Holly, New Jersey. "It could end up being that Monday and Tuesday are very nice days, could be a little windy."
The National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015, had the track for Hurricane Joaquin well east of previous estimates. (Courtesy image | For lehighvalleylive.com) A shift back to the west in Joaquin's path was not expected as of Thursday night, Nierenberg said.
"Please remember that the threat from Hurricane Joaquin has been lessened, but not removed completely," the National Weather Service said in a 5 p.m. Thursday briefing. "If Hurricane Joaquin directly impacts the region, all the major hurricane threats (damaging winds, severe coastal flooding, very heavy rainfall with severe inland flooding) could impact the region."
Rainfall forecast across the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday night into Saturday morning "will hinder preparedness activities for Joaquin, should it head toward our region."
The weekend forecast for the Lehigh Valley showed steady rain through Friday and a chance of precipitation both Saturday and Sunday, according to the weather service.
The outlook forced the cancellations of Saturday's Hackettstown Community Day as well as the Friday night start to ArtsQuest's Oktoberfest in Bethlehem.
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Emergency preparedness officials remained on alert Thursday for a forecast that told of potentially flooding, including in Pennsylvania, pennlive.com reports.
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But as the day wore on, more forecasters went public with what the Allentown-based Eastern PA Weather Authority told lehighvalleylive.com early in the morning: Joaquin was headed east.
Pretty much what we expected after our meteorologist meeting. #Joaquin, a major hurricane now, moves out to sea. pic.twitter.com/nvgYy21enh
-- WeatherWorks (@WeatherWorks) October 1, 2015By the 5 p.m. Thursday briefing, the weather service had declared: "The threat of inland flooding has been sharply reduced due to lower expected rainfall totals."
The National Hurricane Center cautioned, however, that even with Joaquin's eastward track, the potential for problems remained along some parts of the East Coast.
"Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend," the center said in a 5 p.m. Thursday forecast discussion. "In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states."
This NOAA satellite image taken at 12:45 a.m. EDT Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015, shows a cold front pushing off of the Eastern Seaboard. This cold front still was forecast to linger through the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast and be the focus for areas of rain and downpours. This front was expected to slow down and become a stationary front into Friday day, and interact with tropical moisture from Hurricane Joaquin, seen southeast of Florida. (NOAA/Weather Underground via AP | For lehighvalleylive.com) The Associated Press reports 56-year-old Sylvia Arteaga died Thursday morning in South Carolina in a flash flood as she drove beneath an overpass. To the northeast, one person died and another was injured in a crash near Fayetteville, North Carolina, when a tree fell across an interstate and hit two cars.
That's where the worst of the late-week nor'easter is focused, said the National Weather Service's Nierenberg. Even in South Jersey and the Delmarva peninsula, forecast rainfall amounts have dropped from between 4 and 6 inches to between 1 and 3 inches.
"Places in the Carolinas are going to get mega rain," he said. "That's just where the axis of the heaviest precipitation moved further south ... coupled with the fact that Joaquin, based on the current track, is not going to be much of a factor at all."
Kurt Bresswein may be reached at kbresswein@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @KurtBresswein. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.
